An update on the holocaust death toll: Jewish population of the Soviet Union in 1939 and 1946, plus other comments

           

I have earlier relied on a modified Walter Sanning’s hypothesis, which claims that million Jews migrated from Eastern Europe to the USA and are not counted in the immigration figures. Sanning’s claim was that these Jews were Polish Jews. The original Sanning’s claim was shown incorrect by a calculation of the Jewish death toll in the West and Western Poland (the part occupied by Germany in 1939). Half a million Jews could not have emigrated from Western Poland, or all death toll estimates are false, not only those of the death camps in Poland.

            I made a modified version of Sanning’s claim where the Jews migrating to the USA between 1924-1939 came from the Soviet Union of 1939 before Soviets took Eastern Poland. The population growth rate of Jews in the USA is higher than the long time average for Ashkenazi Jews (50 years doubling time), and in this sense about 1 million Jews may have migrated to the USA outside the immigration quotas. However, this always remained a hypothesis. The alternative explanation to the USA figures, a higher population growth rate during 1924-1939, could not be shown false.

            Now I found an alternative to Sanning’s hypothesis. It is also possible that Eastern Polish Jews were counted twice: in the Ukrainian population, part of the Soviet Union Jewish population in 1939, and in the Polish Jewish population. This does not mean that I discard the modified Sanning’s hypothesis. But if that hypothesis is shown incorrect, there is another alternative. 

            The sized of the Jewish population of the Soviet Union in 1939 is given in the American Jewish Yearbook vol. 40 (1938/39).

http://www.ajcarchives.org/AJC_DATA/Files/1938_1939_7_Statistics.pdf

There are no better figures of Jewish populations and the AJY figures are based on the most recent census information. Thus, this is what was known of Soviet Jewish population in 1939. The sum is 2.8 million and it is this sum that I suspect to be one million too high. Let us look at the numbers: they are on Table VIII on page 546 in the AJY vol 40 part statistics. I give the population size and the year of the census:

Ukraine (1,574,428, 1926), White Russia (407,059, 1926), Latvia (93,479, 1935), Lithuania (155,125, 1923), Estonia (4,302, 1934), Russia excluding Crimea and North West Russia (170,693, 1926), Northwest Russia (326,363, 1926), Crimea (45,926, 1926). The sum is 2,777,375.

            The figure for Ukraine, 1.574,428, is for the year 1926. In the official death toll estimate this figure is assumed to be the Ukraine Jewish population of 1939. This assumption conflicts strongly with other information stating that the Ukraine Jewish population in 1939 was 450,000.

            The Soviet Union had a war against Poland 1919-21 and lost it. Poland got large areas from Ukraine. In 1926 these areas did not any more belong to Ukraine, but Soviets may not have agreed with this temporary setback. It is very possible that they still considered these areas as a part of Ukraine and Jews there are Jews of Ukraine. 

            According to the Polish census of 1932 these Eastern areas had 1.16 million Jews in 1931. We may assume that by natural population growth the figure was 1.21 million in 1939. Assuming a similar 4.3% increase as for 1931/32-1939 for the years 1926-1931/32, the Jewish population of 1.574,428 in 1926 would have grown in 5 years by 4% to 1.637 million. If we subtract 1.16 million from 1.684 million we get 477,000 Jews to Ukraine in 1931. There were hard times in Ukraine between 1931 and 1939, thus the population did not grow. The figure 450,000 for 1939 is very reasonable.

            This is one possible reason for the additional million in the Soviet Union Jewish population figure for 1939: Eastern Polish Jews are calculated twice: as Polish Jews in the Polish census of 1932, and as Ukrainian Jews in the Ukrainian census of 1926. This error increases the Soviet Union Jewish population in 1939 by 1.16 million and correcting it decreases the Jewish death toll from 4.5 million to 3.34 million. The modified Sanning’s hypothesis may well be true, but if is false and the USA Jewish population grew faster because of a higher birth rate, it still does not force us to accept 2.8 million in the Soviet Union in 1948.

The second problem is in the Soviet Union Jewish population estimate of 2 million for 1948. The first information of this estimate in the American Jewish Yearbook is in vol. 50 (1948/49) and it has an interesting footnote on page 696.

           “According to Izchok Warszawski’s article Der Tidisher Ontail inem Zig ibern Hitlerism, in Dos Naye Lebn, Warsaw, May 9, 1948, out of the total Jewish population of Russia, amounting to 3,050,000—1,050,000 were killed, thus leaving about 2,000,000 Jews in the USSR in 1945. This is the first statement in the press of Soviet-controlled countries confirming the extent of German annihilation of Jews in the USSR during the occupation.”

http://www.ajcarchives.org/AJC_DATA/Files/1948_1949_18_Statistics.pdf

            Thus, the number of Jews killed by Germans is given the range 1,050,000-3,050,000. This is one million to each direction from 2,050,000, yet Soviets give the number of Jewish survivors as 2 million. As the number killed by Germans varies form 1 million to 3 million, the number of survivors must have the same range: there were 1-3 million Jewish survivors. The exact figure 1,050,000-3,050,000 is the second issue to notice. Why did they add 50,000 to 1-3 million? The explanation is likely to be that from American Jewish Yearbook data the Jewish population of the Soviet Union of 1939 after Eastern Poland was annexed was 4.2 million. Of these Jews bout 200,000 has escaped from Western Poland when Germans occupied it, escaped to the Soviet occupied side, and were taken to Siberia, where most died. If we assume that 150,000 of these about 200,000 died (as was originally believed), then we have to subtract 150,000 for 4.2 million giving 4.05 million as the starting figure. Soviets could not know that Germans had killed 1,050,000-3,050,000 (how could they know of 50,000 if they did not know the total more precisely than 1-3 million?). This means that they estimated the Jewish population to be 1-3 million and from this deduced the number killed by Germans by first subtracting 150,000 that died in Siberia in Soviet camps.

            Later Soviets changed the number Germans killed to 1-1.5 million Jews, which is the official figure today. As they never changed the figure of Jewish survivors from 2 million, it means that the difference between 4.05 million and 2 million is the sum of the number of Jews, who died in German and in Soviet hands. This difference is 2.05 million and reducing 1-1.5 million killed by Germans (in this Soviet calculation), we get the estimate for Jews, who died in Soviet hands as 0.55 million to 1.05 million. Adding 150,000 who died in Siberia, we get the range Soviets must have believed died in their hands as 0.7-1.2 million. The middle point is 950,000. I estimate that 850,000 probably died in Soviet hands. It is very close to this figure, which probably is the Soviet Union estimate in 1948/49.

            These show that the Soviet Union did estimate its Jewish population to have been 1-3 million in 1948. From a census in 1970 I deduce that 2.9 million is a reasonable estimate for the Jewish population of the Soviet Union in 1946. This estimate is not in any way in conflict with the statistics given in American Jewish Congress Yearbooks.       

            I will also comment one popular Holocaust denial claim, which I find incorrect: “The most official report as to the number of people that died in those camps was made by the Red Cross. The 1947 Red Cross report showed the figure of 271, 301 people died in all camps during the entire course of the war and of those that died 40% were Jews.”

            I found a report with very similar numbers. It was used in East Germany:
http://www.renegadetribune.com/international-red-cross-report-confirms-holocaust-six-million-jews-hoax/
There is an image of it.

            The IRC report of 1947 must have been based on similar information.

1) Look up Majdanek, it says 6,920 deaths. Then look up the following death book from the Majdanek museum
https://www.ushmm.org/online/hsv/source_view.php?SourceId=32153
The text says about 7,000 deaths. So these figures match, but the death book is deaths in the time June 8 to September 28, 1942. Clearly, the report is based on partial data from Majdanek, only the death books from June 8 to September 28, 1942. Majdanek was captured almost intact, so there are all archives. They have been carefully studied. The official death toll is 78,000 of whom 59,000 are Jews.

2) Look up Auschwitz, the report says 52,589. Then you wonder where did the report get this number as Soviets hid the archives of Auschwitz. The archives were found much later. They have partial death books, which contain 68,864 names. Thus, the authors of the report did not have these death books. Their number, though given as precise, is incorrect.

3) Then notice that the report does not have figures for camps that were not any more in existence when Allied conquered Germany. There are missing Chelmno, Treblinka, Sobibor, Belcez. There is also missing Theresienstadt. There are missing ghettos of Warsaw and Lodz, as are all work camps in Poland. There is missing the whole area of the Soviet union of 1941.

4) Look up the figure of Mauthausen. The report gives it as 77,727. You wonder why Mauthausen was so much worse than the other camps. This is because the report figure matches the presently given death toll only for the camp of Mauthausen. The normal figure given for that camp is 80,000.

For all these reasons, the ICR report is unreliable. But the essential issue is that it does not have all Jewish deaths. It is only Nazi concentration camps, all but 2 in Germany, omitting 4 important concentration camps in Poland, two large ghettos and a large number of small work camps.

Compare the figures in the East German report to the following figures from each concentration camp web pages. Notice, none of these are death camps, none had gas chambers: Bergen-Belsen 0.05 million, Buchenwaldt 0.05, Ravensbruk some 0.09, Mauthausen maybe 0.08 (mostly non-Jews), Flossenberg 0.03, Dachau 0.027 its subcamp 0.01. The rest, that is Gross-Rosen, Stutthof, Sachenhausen, Neuengammen, Natzweiler, Mittelbau, etc. together make maybe 0.05. These all sum to 0.39 million.

From the East German report we can deduce that these death tolls, that are given in the web sites of concentration camps in Germany, are likely to be correct. That is, the figures in the East German report and the ICR report were obtained from death books that remained in the camps when the Allied arrived, as not all books remained (military personnel has to burn documents so that the enemy does not get them), the death tolls are only partial. But the figure for Mauthausen is 77,0000. Apparently in this camp all death books were left behind. Camps in Germany were similar, so their death ratios should be similar. Scaling the number of prisoners in Mauthausen to the size of the other camps in Germany we can get good estimates to the death toll in the other camps. It seems to lead to figures that are close to the official numbers. Thus, the death tolls in camps in Germany are as in the official figures. Of Poland, there were the following concentration camps: Auschwitz, Majdanek, Chelmno, Treblinka, Sobibor, Belzec. The East German report is not much use as it reports only Majdanek (from partial death books) and Auschwitz (from an unknown, but incorrect source). But there is good information from Majdanek, as most of the camp archives were obtained (but only partial death books). From the partial death books for a period of less than 4 months (7000) we can verify that Kola’s estimate 78,000, of whom 59,000 Jews, is very probable. The other camps in Poland are likely to have similar death ratios.

Thus, estimating death tolls in concentration camps is not in any way impossible. It does not give 6 million. For Nazi concentration camps alone the Jewish death toll is roughly 600,000, not half of 277,000.

But adding other deaths the total gets considerably higher. You must add deaths in ghettos and work camps in Poland (170,000) and in war 1939+ghetto uprising and POW camps (some 50,000), shootings in Yugoslavia (58,000), shootings by Einsatzgruppen and SS divisions (some 100,000), deaths in work camps and ghettos in Ukraine, and an estimate how many died in ghettos and camps in Ukraine in German hands. Adding about 850,000 deaths in Soviet hands and 160,000 in Romania raise the total to 2-2.5 million.