Were 1.48 million Jews killed in Treblinka, Sobibór and Bełżec?
(Checked and revised version: January 2020)
I calculate how many Jews there were in Europe in 1939 (8.89 million) and in 1946 (4.4 million). From the difference we get the death toll of 4.5 million. This death toll fits into the frames of accepted death tolls for the Holocaust. Indeed, it agrees with the range 4.2-4.5 million calculated by Gerald Reitlinger in 1953. It is the number you get from AJY data when emigration out of Europe is taken into account. AJY ignored the emigration and got the number 5.7 million, but it is incorrect. In later calculations by Holocaust researchers there are other oddities. The AJY data, which is the best data and collected in that time, gives 4.5 million as the death toll. There is no way around this fact. This same value is obtained from the Jewish World Almanac: between the years 1948 and 1949 the world Jewish population drops by 4.4 million. This is caused by the Almanac including figures from occupied Europe of 1939-45 into the 1949 statistics. The data is from the same AJY yearbooks that I use, so this only shows that the editors of the Almanac conclude the same way as I do. From areas outside occupied Europe of the war time, Almanac got updated figures for all years 1939-1948. Thus, the natural population growth outside occupied Europe is included, as is immigration. From occupied Europe the data came 1948. The natural population growth in the year 1948-1949 outside occupied Europe is at most 100,000. Thus, the death toll in the occupied Europe is at most 4.4+0.1=4.5 million. This is the Jewish number for the death toll of Jews in the Holocaust. The often mentioned death toll 6 million is calculated by summing the claimed death tolls in different concentration camps, Einsatzgruppen and so on. It is not correct.
The second important issue is to look carefully at the emigration figures, especially at the emigration from Displaced Person camps after 1946. From these camps emigrated more Jews than there were in 1946, thus more Jews came from the East.
Checking where they could have come from and who they could have been, I conclude that there were at least 200,000 survivors from Chełmno, Treblinka, Sobibór and Bełżec and they survived to the end of the war and returned after the war to DP camps.
The population figures are from the American Jewish Yearbooks (AJY). The immigration figures are from web-pages dedicated to those issues.
- How many Jews there were in 1939 according to AJY with minor and accepted corrections?
American Jewish Yearbook (AJY) 1939-40 gives the number of Jews in those countries from where Nazis could not transfer any Jews. These countries were UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, European part of Turkey and Finland. Jewish population in these countries in 1939 was 0.389 million. AJY 1939-40 overestimates Romania’s Jewish population in 1939 to 0.9 million. According to newer studies Romanian Jewish population in 1939 was 0.6 million. Data for the Jewish populations of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea and the European part of the Soviet Union is less certain, but the source gives the total figure 2.82 million Jews in these countries.
AJY 1939-40 gives the Jewish populations to Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Danzig, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Yugoslavia, Netherlands, Norway and Luxemburg. Austria is merged into Germany in these figures. These figures sum to 2.216 million. The figure for Germany after annexing Austria is given as 691,163, correcting it to 300,000 in 1941 for Germany and Austria from the 1939 estimate of the American Jewish Year Book for 1948-49 given on Table 6 on the page 697. Thus, the estimate for Jews in these countries is 1.83 million for 1941.
The population of Jewish Poland in 1931 can be estimated to 3.25 million, see [1]. In 1939 Poland was divided between Germany and the Soviet Union. The parts will be referred to as West and East Poland. West will refer to Europe outside the Soviet Union in 1939, while East refers to areas occupied by Soviets in 1939.
European Jewish population in 1939 is the sum of these figures: 0.389+0.6+2.82+1.83+3.25=8.89 million.
- How many Jews there were in 1946?
AJY for 1948-49 gives Jewish populations for the year 1948. In the eight countries not occupied by Germany lived 0.48 million Jews in 1948. In Romany there were 0.38 million Jews in 1948, in the Soviet Union 2 million, in Poland 0.088 million. In the countries (Belgium, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Danzig, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Yugoslavia, Holland, Luxembourg ja Norway) had 0.83 million Jews. The sum of these numbers is 3.778 million, but this is not the whole answer as there was immigration out of Europe.
Legal immigration to Palestine during 1939-48 was 75,000. This was defined by UK White paper of 1939. All but 3000 immigration visas were granted during 1939-44 and the rest surely before 1948. Thus, the whole 75.000 immigrated legally from Europe. During 1946-48 there was another legal immigration program, 138.000 Jews immigrated from DP-camps to Palestine. All were European Jews. Illegal Alyah Bet immigration to Palestine during 1939-48 was about 110.000 Jews. This gives the total Jewish immigration from Europe to Palestine during 1939-1948 as 0.323 million.
We can add these to survivors, thus 3.778+0.323=4.101 million Jews survived.
But there is still one group of survivors. The existence of this group can be shown by looking at the Displaced Person (DP) camps. After the war ended 1945 there were millions of people in DP-camps from different countries. Most of these people returned home before 1948. In 1946 250,000 Jews stayed in DP-camps, 50,000 of them were concentration camp survivors. Since there were 410,000 Jewish concentration camp survivors, but only 50,000 remained in DP-camps, the rest must have returned home or moved somewhere in 1945-46. Jews, who returned home or moved somewhere in Europe, are already in the Jewish populations of different European countries in 1948.
There were 250,000 Jews in the DP-camps in 1946 and 138,000 immigrated legally to Palestine from DP camps. There could have been at most 112,000 Jews in DP camps in 1948. If some of the illegal immigration or some of the UK White paper immigration came from DP camps between 1946 and 1948 then there were less than 112,000 Jews in DP camps 1948.
We have now included the legal immigration of 75,000 for 1939-48 and the legal immigration of 138,000 of 1946-48, and the illegal immigration of 110,000 for 1939-48. We should have 112,000 Jews in the DP camps. These 112,000 Jews may already be in our calculations. For instance, some are concentration camp survivors (part of the 410,000), some are Polish Jews (part of the 88,000), some Romanian Jews (part of 380,000 that we already counted). In order not to count these Jews twice, we assume they were already counted.
The problem is that much more than 112,000 Jews emigrated from DP camps after 1946. There were many Jews who come to DP camps from Eastern Europe after 1946 and we have not counted them.
Newly independent Israel opened doors in 1948 and took from Europe 0.338 million Jews during 1948-53. They came from DP-camps. Of these 0.338 million, 0.025 million were from Western Europe and the rest from Eastern Europe. Additionally the USA took first 80,000 Jews from DP camps and later 57,000. Thus, 137,000 Jews from DP-camps immigrated to the USA after 1948. Canada and South-Africa took additionally 20,000 Jews from DP-camps after 1948. So, there was supposed to be 112,000 Jews in DP-camps but after 1948 from DP-camps immigrated
338,000+137,000+20,000 =495,000
Jews. That means that 383,000 Jews came to DP-camps from Eastern Europe after 1946. It is partially known where they came from. The largest groups that immigrated in the period 1948-53 from Europe to Israel were from Poland (104,000) and from Romania (123,000). The origin of 30,000 is not known. Very few came from the Soviet Union. These Romanian and Polish Jews make 123,000+104,000 =315,000. It largely explains where from 383,000 came to DP-camps. Polish Jews must be from West Poland, since Eastern Polish Jews birth place was in the Soviet Union after the war and they most probably were not allowed to move to the West. The same argument applies to the whole 383,000 Jews: they were allowed to move to the West, thus they were not born in areas that after the war belonged to the Soviet Union. 123,000 of them were from Romania, thus 383,000-123,000=260,000 were survivors from West Poland or Western and Central Europe.
Adding these 383,000 to the survivors we get 4.101+0.383=4.484 survivors. This is gives the death toll 8.89-4.484=4.4 million. However, I make the reservation that 100,000 Romanian Jews may be counted twice as the population for Romania is so uncertain. Thus, the death toll is 4.5 million and 4.4 million survived.
The 260,000 survivors from West Poland and Western and Central Europe were not Hungarians. Thus, they were not the missing 240,000 Hungarian Jews. I conclude that these Jews must be survivors of Operation Reinhardt camps.
This calculation is over, but I continue with checking the figures.
- How many Jews died?
The Soviet Union occupied to Eastern part of Poland in 1939 and after 198,000 Jews had escaped from the Western part, there were 1.41 million Polish Jews in the Soviet area. In total this area had 2.82+1.41=4.23 million Jews. After Germany attacked in 1941, there were small transfers from East to West. These transfers moved in netto 60.000 Jews from East to West. Thus, the Eastern area had 4.17 million Jews. According to AJY 1948-49 the Jewish population of the Soviet Union in 1948 was 2 million. I will at this point assume that this is also the Jewish population in 1946 and therefore the number of dead Jews in East is 4.17-2=2.17 million.
To Displaced Person -camps arrived after 1946 0.123 million Romanian Jews and 0.3 million stayed in Romania, thus 0.177 million Romanian Jews died out of the pre-war 0.6 million.
The accepted figure of Jews shot in Yugoslavia is 58,000.
The number of Jews who were transported to West Poland or who lived there I calculated in [1] as about 3.03 million. Of them survived 0.41 million in Nazi camps, 0.088 million, who were not captured by Nazis in West Poland and who appeared after 1946.
Adding these figures yields the following number of Jews who lost their life:
2.17+0.177+0.058+(3.03-0.41-0.088)=4.937 million,
but this ignores the Jews, who emigrated from Europe during the war and were never taken to concentration camps. Most of the legal immigration from 1939-48 is of this type, so we can subtract almost all 75,000. Also the illegal immigration of 110,000 is of this type, those Jews were not in concentration camps and did not come to DP camps. Subtracting these from the death toll gives
4.937-0.075-0.11=4.752 million.
Finally we must subtract the 260,000 survivors from Operation Reinhardt camps. The final death toll of Jews is thus:
4.752-0.26=4.492 million.
This figure agrees with the figure we calculated by subtracting the survivors from the original population. It shows that the legal immigration of 130,000 in the period 1946-48 were mostly concentration camp survivors, i.e., a part of the 410,000. See my post on the Auschwitz death toll for a motivation for the figure of 410,000 camp survivors in the West and Western Poland.
- Categories of survivors expressed in another way
We can summarize the number of Jewish survivors in Europe (in millions):
0.389, lived on countries from which Nazis did not capture Jews.
0.646, Jews of Western and Central European countries, which were not transferred, see [1],
2, survivors in the Soviet Union after the war.
0.41, survivors in Nazi camps (see [1]).
0.088, survivors in Poland, not included in the 0.41 million.
0.3, survivors in Romania.
0.384, arrived to DP-camps after 1946 mainly from Poland and Romania.
0.11, transferred to Palestine by Aliyah Bet,
0.075, legal transfer to Palestine during 1939-46.
The sum is 4.402 million. There were 8.89 million originally, thus the death toll calculated from survivors is 4.488. The result is the same as the one calculated from the dead but the precision does not allow more than two decimals. The number of dead is thus 4.49 million. It corresponds well to the range 4.2-4.5 million calculated by Gerald Reitlinger in 1953.
- Did all die in Operation Reinhardt camps?
See [1] for the following estimates of death tolls.
In the Soviet Union 2.15 (million), Romania 0.177, Yugoslavia 0.058. These make 2.385 million. The Soviet figure is calculated as follows: in 1939 in the Soviet Union and Baltic countries there were 2.8 million Jews according to AJY. Then the Soviet Union took Eastern Poland and got 1.41 million. There were 4.2 million Jews, but Nazis moved 60,000 to West Poland. Thus, there were 4.15 million. In 1948 there were 2 million Jews in the Soviet Union. Thus, 4.15-2=2.15 million died.
In German-Austrian camps 0.16 (estimate) and Theresienstadt 0.033, West-Poland ghettos, camps, fighting, Majdanek 0.165+0.057+0.059=0.281, and Chełmno 0.15. Let us use 0.06 million as the dead in Auschwitz as a lower bound. Together these numbers give 0.684 deaths.
The death toll for Auschwitz approximates the death toll of Jewish inmates who were officially registered to Auschwitz. That is, about half of inmates registered to Auschwitz were Jews and there are some 60,000 deaths in incomplete Auschwitz death books. If the total death toll was 120,000, then Jewish deaths were 60,000.
Together 2.385+0.684=3.07 million died in these places. As the total death toll is 4.5 million, there remains 1.43 million to die in the three Operation Reinhardt camps Treblinka, Sobibór and Bełżec. The number 1.43 million is very close to the number 1.48 million of Jews sent to the three Operation Reinhardt camps. Thus, this calculation does not directly show that all were not killed, but this is so only because the Auschwitz death toll for Jews was set to 60,000. Increasing this death toll by any number gives equally many survivors from Operation Reinhardt (OR) camps.
We can now ask who were the 383,000 survivors who came to DP camps after 1946? They were from the West or Western Poland, thus they must belong to the 3.1 million in West and Western Poland. From this 3.1 million 0.684 died in the West or Western Poland, not in the three OR camps. 88,000 were West Polish Jews who managed to hide. About 410,000 were camp survivors. To OR camps were sent 1.48 millions. The rest 3.1-0.684-0.088-0.41-1.48=0.438 must have been mainly the Hungarian Jews (and some others). Hungarian Jews came too late to be sent to Operation Reinhardt camps.
If all sent to the three OR camps died, then the 0.383 million coming to DP camps must have been a part of these 0.438 million. If so, they would be mainly Hungarian Jews, but Hungarian Jews disappeared. Thus, the 0.383 million survivors must have been part of those sent to the three OR camps.
Notice that the 0.383 million cannot have (at least all) been from the 410,000 survivors because a bit less than 200,000 of these survivors returned home to West, see [1], and some 83,000 of these 410,00 were liberated by the Allies. They were not the mysterious 383,000 who came to DP camps later and did not tell where they came from. These mysterious 383,000 could also not be Soviet or Eastern Poland Jews, as after the war they were Soviet Jews and the Soviet Union did not allow its people to leave to the West.
I conclude that at least 200,000 sent to the three OR camps must have survived.
This post still leaves open the fate of the 0.438 million (mainly Hungarian Jews). If 383,000 Jews sent to the three OR camps survived, 383,000 of the 438,000 can have died, but some probably did survive. The survival of these 438,000 depends on if 2.17 million did die in the Soviet Union. This will be treated in another post.
References:
[1] How many Jews died in Auschwitz? a post in this blog.